In particular, we consider sequential prediction with an adversary that injects adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples in a stream of i.i.d.

We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail in the presence of such adversarial examples, often leading to erroneous predictions. This is undesirable in many high-stakes applications such as medical recommendations, where abstaining from predictions on adversarial examples is preferable to misclassification. On the other hand, assuming fully adversarial data leads to very pessimistic bounds that are often vacuous in practice. To move away from these pessimistic guarantees, we propose a new model of sequential prediction that sits between the purely stochastic and fully adversarial settings by allowing the learner to abstain from making a prediction at no cost on adversarial examples, thereby asking the learner to make predictions with certainty. Assuming access to the marginal distribution on the non-adversarial examples, we design a learner whose error scales with the VC dimension (mirroring the stochastic setting) of the hypothesis class, as opposed to the Littlestone dimension which characterizes the fully adversarial setting. Furthermore, we design learners for VC dimension~1 classes and the class of axis-aligned rectangles, which work even in the absence of access to the marginal distribution. Our key technical contribution is a novel measure for quantifying uncertainty for learning VC classes, which may be of independent interest.

In many real-world applications, however, several objective functions have to be considered simultaneously.

We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail in the presence of such adversarial examples, often leading to erroneous predictions. This is undesirable in many high-stakes applications such as medical recommendations, where abstaining from predictions on adversarial examples is preferable to misclassification. On the other hand, assuming fully adversarial data leads to very pessimistic bounds that are often vacuous in practice. To move away from these pessimistic guarantees, we propose a new model of sequential prediction that sits between the purely stochastic and fully adversarial settings by allowing the learner to abstain from making a prediction at no cost on adversarial examples, thereby asking the learner to make predictions with certainty. Assuming access to the marginal distribution on the non-adversarial examples, we design a learner whose error scales with the VC dimension (mirroring the stochastic setting) of the hypothesis class, as opposed to the Littlestone dimension which characterizes the fully adversarial setting.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Statistical learning and sequential prediction are two different but related formalisms to study the quality of predictions. Mapping out their relations and transferring ideas is an active area of investigation. We provide another piece of the puzzle by showing that an important concept in sequential prediction, the mixability of a loss, has a natural counterpart in the statistical setting, which we call stochastic mixability. Just as ordinary mixability characterizes fast rates for the worst-case regret in sequential prediction, stochastic mixability characterizes fast rates in statistical learning. We show that, in the special case of log-loss, stochastic mixability reduces to a well-known (but usually unnamed) martingale condition, which is used in existing convergence theorems for minimum description length and Bayesian inference. In the case of 0/1-loss, it reduces to the margin condition of Mammen and Tsybakov, and in the case that the model under consideration contains all possible predictors, it is equivalent to ordinary mixability.

Probabilistic predictions of binary outcomes are said to be calibrated, if, informally, they are unbiased conditional on their own predictions. For predictors that are not perfectly calibrated, there are a variety of ways to measure calibration error. Perhaps the most popular measure is Expected Calibration Error (ECE), which measures the average bias of the predictions, weighted by the frequency of the predictions. ECE has a number of difficulties as a measure of calibration, not least of which is that it is discontinuous in the predictions. Motivated by this, B lasiok et al. [2023] propose a different measure: distance to calibration, which measures how far a predictor is in l

We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution) examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail in the presence of such adversarial examples, often leading to erroneous predictions. This is undesirable in many high-stakes applications such as medical recommendations, where abstaining from predictions on adversarial examples is preferable to misclassification. On the other hand, assuming fully adversarial data leads to very pessimistic bounds that are often vacuous in practice. To capture this motivation, we propose a new model of sequential prediction that sits between the purely stochastic and fully adversarial settings by allowing the learner to abstain from making a prediction at no cost on adversarial examples. Assuming access to the marginal distribution on the non-adversarial examples, we design a learner whose error scales with the VC dimension (mirroring the stochastic setting) of the hypothesis class, as opposed to the Littlestone dimension which characterizes the fully adversarial setting. Furthermore, we design a learner for VC dimension~1 classes, which works even in the absence of access to the marginal distribution. Our key technical contribution is a novel measure for quantifying uncertainty for learning VC classes, which may be of independent interest.